As of 20:28 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 6 markets in “Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31, 2026” at 12% (-1pp in 24h), “February 28, 2026” at 0% and “June 30, 2026” at 0%. The event has $3k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Opinion.
vol cum
$3.8M
vol 24h
$3k
outcomes
6
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
GazaGeopoliticsPoliticsGlobalForeign PolicyIsrael
marketselected outcome
December 31, 2026
rank #1
IsraelPalestine
12¢
▼ 1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$1.7M
vol 24h
$3k
spread
0.01
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
