What is the current probability for "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?": December 31 8%, April 30 0%, March 31 0% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73059. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event3 outcomes

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$3.1M

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

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LebanonPoliticsIsraelSyriaGeopoliticsForeign Policy

marketselected outcome

December 31

rank #1

Lebanon

8¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$2.1M

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Mar 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

timeline

opened · Feb 3, 2026closedresolved · Mar 31, 2026

December 31 · prices over time

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