How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027
As of 04:30 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, “1” leads “How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?” on Polymarket at 36% (+1pp in 24h), followed by “0” at 33% (+3pp in 24h) and “6” at 30%, out of 8 outcomes. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold and Gemini.
vol cum
$9.7k
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
8
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 8
PoliticsTrump CabinetTrumpOut
marketselected outcome
1
rank #1
United States
36¢
▲ 1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$634
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.62
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
