pdatanews283

markets

The first 50 of 1,367 events on pdata.world for this view, across 8 prediction-market platforms. Prices are probabilities; volume is each platform's own reported 24-hour figure, in its own unit.

  1. Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026? — Manifold, 32%, M28.5k 24h volume.
  2. In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Manifold, 46%, M26k 24h volume.
  3. Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026? — Manifold, 63%, M5.7k 24h volume.
  4. What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in? — Manifold, November 2026 64%, M3.4k 24h volume.
  5. Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? — Polymarket, December 31, 2029 24%, $205.9k 24h volume.
  6. October 2026 AI model releases — Manifold, Any Mistral Model 100%, M3.1k 24h volume.
  7. Largest company end of 2026? — Manifold, NVIDIA 60%, M2.8k 24h volume.
  8. Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027 — Manifold, 8%, M2.5k 24h volume.
  9. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? — Polymarket, December 31 5%, $143k 24h volume.
  10. Which company has the best AI model end of October? — Polymarket, Google 88%, $129.5k 24h volume.
  11. Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? — Manifold, 42%, M1.8k 24h volume.
  12. Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap — Polymarket, $1.75–$2.0T 28%, $90.7k 24h volume.
  13. Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? — Polymarket, December 31, 2028 30%, $86.7k 24h volume.
  14. What ticker will Anthropic use? — Manifold, ANT 65%, M1.7k 24h volume.
  15. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? — Kalshi, Before Jan 20, 2029 23%, $249.3k 24h volume.
  16. Which company has best AI model end of 2026? — Polymarket, Anthropic 50%, $60.1k 24h volume.
  17. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — Polymarket, December 31 93%, $72.7k 24h volume.
  18. By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI? — Manifold, 29%, M1.4k 24h volume.
  19. Largest Company end of October 2026? — Polymarket, NVIDIA 56%, $60.6k 24h volume.
  20. Largest Company end of December 2026? — Polymarket, NVIDIA 59%, $56k 24h volume.
  21. Will we get AGI before 2027? — Manifold, 4%, M1.2k 24h volume.
  22. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — Predict, December 31 94%, $19.4k 24h volume.
  23. Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — Polymarket, Xiaomi 60%, $45.7k 24h volume.
  24. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? — Polymarket, No release by October 31 75%, $43.8k 24h volume.
  25. Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors? — Manifold, 62%, M1.1k 24h volume.
  26. Best AI at the end of 2026? — Kalshi, Claude 50%, $102.9k 24h volume.
  27. How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? — Manifold, 3 or more 100%, M933 24h volume.
  28. Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date — Manifold, Before 2027-02-16 98%, M883 24h volume.
  29. What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026? — Manifold, Other 12%, M843 24h volume.
  30. OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? — Polymarket, December 31, 2027 60%, $23.6k 24h volume.
  31. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Polymarket, 1.5T+ 37%, $20.1k 24h volume.
  32. Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...? — Polymarket, November 30 83%, $19k 24h volume.
  33. What will Anthropic's public ticker be? — Polymarket, $ANT 59%, $19.1k 24h volume.
  34. Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028? — Manifold, 35%, M646 24h volume.
  35. GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October? — Manifold, 13%, M644 24h volume.
  36. GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut? — Polymarket, 55%+ 89%, $16.1k 24h volume.
  37. Apple Vision Pro discontinued before 2028? — Manifold, 14%, M578 24h volume.
  38. Best AI at the end of 2026? — Gemini, Claude 51%, $926 24h volume.
  39. Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? — Polymarket, December 31, 2028 26%, $13.3k 24h volume.
  40. 2nd Largest Company end of October 2026? — Polymarket, Apple 56%, $12.9k 24h volume.
  41. Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? — Manifold, 4%, M482 24h volume.
  42. Which company has the best AI model end of November? — Polymarket, Google 55%, $11.8k 24h volume.
  43. CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...? — Polymarket, December 31, 2029 27%, $11.3k 24h volume.
  44. Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Polymarket, ↑$1.5T 94%, $11k 24h volume.
  45. Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027? — Manifold, 41%, M454 24h volume.
  46. In which month will Anthropic IPO? — Polymarket, November 2026 62%, $10.7k 24h volume.
  47. Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027? — Manifold, 2%, M434 24h volume.
  48. How many launches will SpaceX have in October? — Kalshi, Above 6 99%, $24.9k 24h volume.
  49. Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Polymarket, ↑$1.3T 75%, $9.8k 24h volume.
  50. Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) — Polymarket, 1.8T+ 70%, $9.7k 24h volume.