What is dark matter?
As of 12:24 UTC on 25 Oct 2026, “Primordial black holes” leads “What is dark matter?” on Manifold at 21%, followed by “Other” at 19% and “WIMPs” at 16%, out of 9 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolves to whatever makes up dark matter, once it is agreed upon by physicists. If dark matter is made up of more than one of these options, resolves to the percentage of the mass of dark matter that is made of each option. If some of the effects currently attributed to dark matter are actually new physics like MOND, I will resolve to the appropriate options based on what percentage of the dark matter currently believed to exist can be explained away by the new physics. The same will be the case if some of the effects attributed to DM can be explained away without recourse to any new physics or matter at all, but are just a result of flaws in our current theoretical models (e.g., calculations of galactic rotation curves leave out effects that are present in general relativity that turn out to be significant; corrected results agree with observation).
