Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which of these Four World Leaders in Asia will lose power first?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which of these Four World Leaders in Asia will lose power first?": Narendra Modi 48%, Vladimir Putin 32%, Xi Jinping 10% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2029.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/BfGGleFeeM6PZKiYAj5w. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which of these Four World Leaders in Asia will lose power first?

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