First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?
As of 10:13 UTC on 19 Oct 2026, “Benjamin Netanyahu” leads “First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?” on Manifold at 71%, followed by “Mojtaba Khomeini” at 22% and “Donald Trump” at 7%, out of 3 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi and Opinion.
Which of these leaders in the conflict between US & Israel and Iran will be the first to lose power? Any process or event by which they lose their position would count, e.g. democratic process, revolution, ill health, death. In unclear or confusing circumstances I will make a judgement based on major international media reports and Wikipedia entries within one month of credible reports.
