Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency?” at 58%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold.

58%

vol cum

M5.2k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 20, 2029

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if: Joe Biden is still alive when Donald Trump's current presidential term ends (normally January 20, 2029), or if Trump's presidency ends earlier for any reason (resignation, removal from office, death) and Biden is still alive at that time. The market will resolve to NO if: Joe Biden dies before Trump's presidency concludes. Market will continue in the event of a Trump presidency continuing beyond January 20th 2029, until one of the conditions are met.