Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
As of 22:44 UTC on 16 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?” at 30%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently. Different countries: @/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons @/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap @/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we @/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon @/RemNi/will-taiwan-acquire-nuclear-weapons-091895b8e730 @/RemNi/will-vietnam-acquire-nuclear-weapon @/RemNi/will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b (this question) @/RemNi/will-saudi-arabia-acquire-nuclear-w @/RemNi/will-turkey-acquire-nuclear-weapons @/RemNi/will-sweden-acquire-nuclear-weapons @/RemNi/will-indonesia-acquire-nuclear-weap @/RemNi/will-brazil-acquire-nuclear-weapons @/RemNi/will-nigeria-acquire-nuclear-weapon @/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-nuclear-weapons @/RemNi/will-poland-acquire-nuclear-weapons @/RemNi/will-belarus-acquire-nuclear-weapon
