Question 1

What is the current probability for "When will Trump die?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "When will Trump die?" are After 2027 (81) 90%, After 2028 (82) 85%, After 2030 (84) 71% — 2 of 8 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2047.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/cO6y085960. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

When will Trump die?

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