When, where or how will Trump die?
Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old. He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history. According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources. If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO. The market will resolve N/A if: Trump's death cannot be verified by multiple reputable sources The exact date of death cannot be determined The death occurs under disputed circumstances where the date is unclear Considerations Trump has access to high-quality medical care and resources which may extend life expectancy beyond population averages His father, Fred Trump, lived to be 93 years old, suggesting possible genetic factors for longevity As a former president, he receives lifetime medical care from military physicians Stress factors from legal proceedings and potential political activities could impact health outcomes Medical privacy laws may affect the timing and details of death announcements Note: This market deals with the death of a public figure. Traders should approach the topic with appropriate sensitivity and respect. Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For location-based resolution (e.g., "outside" vs "inside"), the market will only resolve if the circumstances are clear. Examples: Clear case: Death from a bombing outside would resolve as "outside" Unclear case: A heart attack where the person is transported to a hospital and declared dead inside would be considered unclear and may resolve N/A Update 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "in front of a camera" option: A recording camera counts (including CCTV) Holding a cell phone that is off does not count Verification does not require the footage to be publicly released Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "with a bullet inside his body" option: resolves YES if a bullet is found inside his body after autopsy, whether from being shot or from swallowing. Update 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "While he is on a GLP-1" option: if it cannot be confirmed whether Trump was on a GLP-1 at the time of death, the market will resolve N/A.