Question 1

What is the current probability for "How will Donald Trump die? (Before age 100)"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "How will Donald Trump die? (Before age 100)": Dementia, stroke, or other non-infectious brain condition 32%, Heart attack or other cardiac condition 15%, "Natural causes" with no other cause given 14% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 6/15/2046.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/cguqq5008l. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

How will Donald Trump die? (Before age 100)

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