event15 outcomes
How will Donald Trump die? (Before age 100)
Manifold·Politics·ends Jun 15, 2046
As of 13:29 UTC on 5 May 2026, “Dementia, stroke, or other non-infectious brain condition” leads “How will Donald Trump die? (Before age 100)” on Manifold at 32%, followed by “Heart attack or other cardiac condition” at 15% and “"Natural causes" with no other cause given” at 14%, out of 15 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold.
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Jun 15, 2046
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Update 2025-09-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Medically assisted/voluntary euthanasia will count as suicide. If performed where it's illegal (e.g., Florida), the creator notes it could also be considered homicide.
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