When will Donald Trump die?

Manifold·Politics·ends Jan 22, 2036

As of 21:42 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, the highest-priced of the 12 markets in “When will Donald Trump die?” on Manifold are “Before 2037” at 83%, “Before 2036” at 82% and “Before 2035” at 75%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

This is a cumulative probability market. Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "Before 2026" and "Before 2027" resolve NO, and "Before 2028", "Before 2029", etc. will all resolve YES. Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died. For example, "Before 2026" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun. There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.