event4 outcomes

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 16:04 UTC on 19 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 4% (+1pp in 24h), “December 31, 2025” at 0% and “March 31” at 0%. The event has $1.3k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.

vol cum

$14.2M

vol 24h

$1.3k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

PoliticsGeopoliticsTrump PresidencyWorldVenezuela

marketselected outcome

December 31

rank #1

United StatesVenezuela

4¢

▲ 0.6pp

24h change

vol cum

$258.8k

vol 24h

$1.3k

spread

0.00

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

timeline

opened · Jan 4, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

December 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history