marketsingle market
Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
United States

39%
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M13.9k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 7, 2029
YES 39¢
NO 61¢
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there. Resolves based on my own judgement of what counts as "a serious attempt". I won't bet. (The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion. Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.) Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify. Note: This is about Trump specifically, not Republicans in general. A coup to put JD Vance in power would not count unless he's there to be a puppet of Trump.
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opened · Jan 22, 2024opencloses · Jan 7, 2029