Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
As of 01:45 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?” at 45%. The market has M$50 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there. Resolves based on my own judgement of what counts as "a serious attempt". I won't bet. (The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion. Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.) Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify. Note: This is about Trump specifically, not Republicans in general. A coup to put JD Vance in power would not count unless he's there to be a puppet of Trump.
