Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Sam Altman is expecting a child in 2025. Congratulations to Sam! This market resolves yes if by my assessment Sam Altman becomes more cautious about developing unaligned AGI / ASI after having a child. After the birth of his child: If Sam explicitly says that he is more cautious after having a child, this resolves yes. If there is a clear move to slow things down from OpenAI (eg. Coordinating with the other big labs to agree to a pause, stating that they will not develop any new frontier models until they have done more research on exisiting models) this resolves yes. If openAI endorses some regulatory proposal that would limit frontier model development this resolves yes. If otherwise consensus agreement from legitimate sources is that Sam has become more cautious since having a child this resolves yes. Otherwise if things continue until mid 2026 with none of this or any other move that looks to be an increase in cautiousness from Sam / openAI this resolves no.
