Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Background ARC‑AGI was introduced in 2019 as a grid‑based reasoning benchmark (“v1”) designed to test whether AI systems can infer novel rules from a few examples rather than rely on pattern memorization. Open‑source solvers plateaued near 53 % accuracy, while a high‑compute run of OpenAI’s o3‑preview model achieved roughly 75–88 %, indicating that v1 was largely saturated. To raise the bar, the ARC Prize Foundation unveiled the harder, human‑validated “ARC‑AGI‑2” (v2) on 24 March 2025 and opened a Kaggle contest capped at about US $0.42 of compute per task. The headline rule remains: the first fully open‑source system to reach ≥ 85 % on the private v2 set wins the $1 million Grand Prize. Resolution Criteria The market resolves YES if before January 1, 2027 the ARC Prize Foundation publicly announces and awards any portion of the $1 million Grand Prize to one or more teams. Primary rule: The winning submission must achieve ≥ 85 % accuracy on ARC‑AGI‑2 (or an officially designated successor) during an official competition period. Future changes: If ARC publishes a new test or alters the accuracy threshold, the operative condition remains “the first public, binding commitment to pay out—or the actual payout of—the prize labelled the ARC Grand Prize.”
