Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

·Politics

United States

21%

▼ 0.8pp

24h change

vol cum

M553k

vol 24h

M404

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 19, 2029

The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities. I won’t be betting on this market. Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes. The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities. Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.