Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
As of 20:29 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?” at 16% (+1pp in 24h). The market has M$296 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities. I won’t be betting on this market. Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes. The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities. Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
