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PoliticsUnited States

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?↗

Polymarket · $189K 24h · 2 of 2 markets moved >15pp

1 / 30

June 30, 202719%-16pp ↗

December 315%-18pp ↗

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$56.1k▾When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?

$3.6kBefore Jul 1, 2027 20¢▼ 30.0pp

$52.6kBefore Jan 1, 2027 7¢▼ 15.7pp

$49.8k▾Will the House impeach Trump?

$12.8kBefore Jun 1, 2027 44¢▼ 18.0pp

$19.8kBefore Jul 1, 2027 48¢▼ 17.0pp

$36.3k▾Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

$10.3kBefore Apr 1, 2027 49¢▼ 26.0pp

$26.1kBefore Jan 1, 2027 30¢▼ 21.0pp

$35.2kWill Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Apr 1, 2027?78¢▲ 23.0pp

$30.6k▾Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

$1.6kBefore Apr 1, 2027 15¢▼ 19.0pp

$1.6kBefore Jul 1, 2027 22¢▼ 17.0pp

$22.5kWill Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?68¢▲ 27.0pp

$17.3kWill Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 37.6% at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?82¢▲ 33.0pp

$16.6kBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms — Democrats Sweep 100¢▲ 99.0pp

$12.1kWill a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026? — Before 2027 6¢▼ 26.8pp

$189.4k▾Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

$169.9kDecember 31 5¢▼ 18.0pp

$19.5kJune 30, 2027 19¢▼ 16.5pp

$3.7kSupreme Court vacancy in 2026?19¢▼ 17.0pp

$33.1kPete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?28¢▲ 23.6pp

$14.2kWill Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?43¢▼ 18.5pp

$8kWill Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?48¢▼ 26.0pp

$3.6kGovernment shutdown by December 31?33¢▼ 17.5pp

$2.6k▾How many Trump vetoes by December 31, 2027?

$20025-29 8¢▼ 21.5pp

$2.4k15-19 17¢▼ 15.0pp

$1kSaudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 6?97¢▲ 23.0pp

$446Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?72¢▼ 18.5pp

$541Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?0¢▼ 49.5pp

$332Maryland passes redistricting requirements ballot measure?100¢▲ 48.5pp

$36.3k▾When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

$19.2kBefore Dec 31, 2026 9¢▼ 14.0pp

$17.1kBefore Nov 13, 2026 8¢▼ 12.0pp

$7.5k▾DeepSeek market share this week

$2.8kAbove 29.0%99¢▲ 99.0pp

$2.6kAbove 27.4%99¢▲ 99.0pp

$6.5k▾Google market share this week

$3.8kAbove 10.7%98¢▲ 98.0pp

$1.1kAbove 15.1%11¢▼ 28.0pp

$5.7k▾Anthropic market share this week

$4.4kAbove 4.5%99¢▲ 99.0pp

$877Above 5.7%48¢▲ 48.0pp

$36.8k▾GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

$5.9kNovember 11 86¢▲ 28.5pp

$6.4kNovember 13 93¢▲ 25.5pp

$7.8kWill GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 6, 2026?37¢▲ 24.5pp

$5.2kWill GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?61¢▲ 18.8pp

$1.6k▾Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) released by...?

$777December 31 100¢▲ 25.0pp

$822January 31 100¢▲ 24.0pp

$25.2k▾Gemini Carbon released on...?

$6.3kNovember 11 45¢▲ 34.7pp

$18.9kNovember 10 23¢▼ 33.3pp

$1.2kNext GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?77¢▲ 21.0pp

$18.3kWill María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?71¢▲ 17.5pp

$10.3kWill Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?56¢▲ 19.0pp

$124Will the Opportunity Party win 4-6 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?17¢▼ 22.5pp

$6.8k▾CPI in November

$2.4kAbove 0.0%45¢▼ 41.0pp

$3.6kAbove 0.1%36¢▼ 26.0pp

$4.1kWill the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?86¢▲ 18.0pp

$2.1kWill the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Nov 5, 2026 be above 7.12%?99¢▲ 99.0pp

$4.9kWill Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?64¢▲ 22.0pp

$2.8kWill world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?30¢▼ 13.8pp

$2.5k▾ISM Services PMI - October 2026

$2.3k54.0 to 54.9 100¢▲ 51.6pp

$19455.0 to 55.9 0¢▼ 24.1pp

$740Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?51¢▼ 18.0pp

$28.4k▾Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

$21.2kAvengers: Doomsday 74¢▲ 24.0pp

$7.2kSpider-Man: Brand New Day 27¢▼ 21.0pp

$27.3k▾Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

$21kAvengers: Doomsday 71¢▲ 17.5pp

$6.3kSpider-Man: Brand New Day 30¢▼ 14.5pp

$18.4k▾Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

$10.9kSpider-Man: Brand New Day 70¢▲ 18.5pp

$7.5kAvengers: Doomsday 23¢▼ 26.5pp

$6.4kWill La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards?21¢▼ 17.0pp

$5.8kWill "Magan's Fare" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?10¢▼ 29.0pp

$5.4kWill "Michael" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢▼ 26.1pp

$2.3kWill "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?5¢▼ 16.4pp

$3.5kWill Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?28¢▼ 15.5pp

$1.1kWill Donald Trump be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?24¢▼ 22.0pp

$18.6k▾Kroger Credit Card Spend in October

$6.1kAbove 94 98¢▲ 93.0pp

$1.6kAbove 97 2¢▼ 19.0pp

$16.2k▾Shell Credit Card Spend in October

$7.8kAbove 101 99¢▲ 74.0pp

$1.1kAbove 112 1¢▼ 75.0pp

$15.4k▾BP Credit Card Spend in October

$10kAbove 110 95¢▲ 74.0pp

$5.5kAbove 108 99¢▲ 61.0pp

$12.3k▾Sephora Credit Card Spend in October

$5.7kAbove 121 99¢▲ 90.0pp

$6.5kAbove 114 98¢▲ 22.0pp

$8.2k▾Shein Credit Card Spend in October

$7kAbove 84 99¢▲ 55.0pp

$1.2kAbove 81 97¢▲ 17.0pp

$8.1kWill Streaming app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 95?29¢▲ 18.0pp

$7.5k▾Celsius Point of Sale Growth in November 2026

$900Above 79.5 87¢▲ 87.0pp

$6.6kAbove 87 47¢▼ 18.0pp

$7.4k▾Lowe's Credit Card Spend in October

$4.9kAbove 98 99¢▲ 67.0pp

$2.5kAbove 102 1¢▼ 29.0pp

$26.9k▾Bank of Brazil decision in November?

$13.4kNo Change 100¢▲ 12.3pp

$13.5k25 bps decrease 0¢▼ 12.3pp

$1.8k▾Central Bank of Chile decision in December

$879No change 57¢▲ 22.0pp

$90125 bps increase 36¢▼ 18.5pp

$1.4kWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?7¢▼ 16.5pp

$732Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the January meeting?5¢▼ 21.0pp

$235Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?23¢▼ 22.0pp

$1.4k▾GPU rental prices (H100) end of December 2026?

$205$2.25-$2.50 8¢▼ 35.5pp

$525$3.00-$3.25 12¢▼ 35.0pp

$1.4k▾GPU rental prices (RTX 6000) end of November 2026?

$293$1.00-$1.25 1¢▼ 42.5pp

$451$1.75-$2.00 2¢▼ 37.8pp

$1k▾GPU rental prices (A100) end of December 2026?

$153$0.50-$0.75 12¢▼ 31.5pp

$885$1.50+17¢▼ 28.0pp

$308▾GPU rental prices (RTX 6000) end of December 2026?

$139$2.00+5¢▼ 41.0pp

$170$1.00-$1.25 5¢▼ 34.0pp

$302Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.50 on December 31, 2026?20¢▼ 30.5pp

$4.6kStarbucks comparable transactions growth in 2027

$2kAbove -3.0%94¢▲ 94.0pp

$2.6kAbove -4.0%93¢▲ 93.0pp

$1.7kWill NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? — 4.19 million 67¢▼ 16.0pp

$564Will Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. complete The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s 50,000-square-foot museum expansion in Cleveland, Ohio before Dec 1, 2026?83¢▲ 41.0pp

$11.5kWill Puffpaw launch a token by ___?

$7.1kDecember 31, 2026 82¢▲ 62.0pp

$4.5kMarch 31, 2027 81¢▲ 48.5pp

$3.3kWill Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?83¢▲ 15.9pp

$259k▾Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)

$169.5k44 95¢▲ 21.7pp

$89.6k45 5¢▼ 18.6pp

$1.8k▾Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)

$833175-179 44¢▲ 16.6pp

$1k180-184 3¢▼ 29.9pp

$10.3k▾Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?

$7.1kJon Ossoff 94¢▲ 34.5pp

$1.7kJosh Shapiro 0¢▼ 15.3pp

$4.4k▾Harris's Democratic nomination odds hit __ by December 31?

$1.5k↓ 4%100¢▲ 44.0pp

$2.9k↑ 8%19¢▼ 31.0pp

$3.4kWill the Democrats win Iowa in the 2028 Presidential Election?36¢▼ 20.5pp

$2.3kOssoff's Democratic nomination odds hit 25% by December 31?100¢▲ 32.5pp

$1.1kShapiro's Democratic nomination odds dip to 4% by December 31?60¢▲ 17.0pp

$763Trump Jr.'s Republican nomination odds dip to 2% by December 31?100¢▲ 32.0pp

$622Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2028?90¢▲ 19.0pp

$4.2kWill Heather Jefts win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?100¢▲ 22.6pp

$3.4kWill Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?100¢▲ 15.5pp

$1.8k▾2026 Tarrant County Judge Election Winner

$1.1kAlisa Simmons 100¢▲ 32.5pp

$721Tim O'Hare 0¢▼ 31.6pp

$821▾2026 Collin County Judge Election Winner

$422Chris Hill 100¢▲ 30.5pp

$399John R. "Buster" Brown 0¢▼ 20.5pp

$907▾Governor Combo: Texas, Oregon, Vermont

$376Dems TX & OR, Reps VT 100¢▲ 53.5pp

$181Dems TX & VT, Reps OR 0¢▼ 46.0pp

$302Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?3¢▼ 39.5pp

$261Will the loser of the Vermont Governor election concede by November 3?100¢▲ 50.0pp

$187First Round Outright Winner in the Vermont Governor Election?100¢▲ 47.5pp

$3.1MWill Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi? — Scott Colom 96¢▲ 15.3pp

$612.7k▾AZ-02 House winner?

$310.4kEli Crane 69¢▲ 44.0pp

$302.4kJonathan Nez 31¢▼ 46.0pp

$495.3k▾How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

$292kBelow 45 90¢▲ 20.0pp

$203.3k45 9¢▼ 15.0pp

$1.2M▾Mississippi Senate Election Winner

$677.1kScott Colom (D)97¢▲ 16.3pp

$487kCindy Hyde-Smith (R)4¢▼ 15.4pp

$610▾Senate Combo: Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida

$220Dems LA & FL, Reps MS 0¢▼ 31.5pp

$220Reps LA & MS, Dems FL 0¢▼ 24.0pp

$160.9k▾AZ-02 House Election Winner

$74.2kEli Crane (R)68¢▲ 42.5pp

$86.7kJonathan Nez (D)33¢▼ 43.0pp

$67.6k▾CA-23 House Election Winner

$30kJay Obernolte (R)86¢▲ 22.5pp

$37.6kTessa Lynn Hodge (D)14¢▼ 22.5pp

$21.8k▾Michigan Senate loser concedes by...?

$159November 3 0¢▼ 48.5pp

$21.6kNovember 4 7¢▼ 45.5pp

$14.1k▾Which party will win white voters in the midterms?

$8.3kDemocrats 87¢▲ 83.6pp

$5.8kRepublicans 11¢▼ 83.3pp

$2.2k▾Which Senate races will be within 5%?

$210Louisiana 99¢▲ 31.9pp

$126Maine 7¢▼ 43.0pp

$239Will the loser of the Nevada Governor election concede by November 4?100¢▲ 50.0pp