markets

sourceevent / marketprob.vol 24▾rankⓘchartendstatus

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

HealthTech

27¢

M2.5K48Jan 1, 2040open

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

HealthWorldPolitics

70¢

Benjamin Netanyahu

M30026Mar 13, 2040open

Will I be alive by 2100?

Health

52¢

M12018Feb 1, 2100open

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

Health

97¢

At least 2000

$70114Jan 1, 2029open

New pandemic before 2028?

HealthTech

17¢

$361.614Jan 1, 2028open

Pandemic in 2026?

Health

6¢

In 2026

$206.89Jan 1, 2027open

Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?

Health

12¢

In 2026

$47.15Jan 31, 2027open

Will there be a year without polio before 2030?

Health

4¢

Before 2030

$36.64Jan 1, 2030open

Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?

Health

42¢

Before 2033

$0—Jan 8, 2033open

Will Trump make IVF free?

Health

17¢

Before 2029

$0—Jan 27, 2029open

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

HealthBusiness

24¢

M0—Dec 31, 2026open

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

HealthTech

8¢

M0—Dec 31, 2026open

Will I live to be 100 years old?

Health

26¢

M0—Jan 1, 2095open

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Health

81¢

M0—Jan 2, 2028open

By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?

HealthTech

25¢

M0—Jan 1, 2056open

If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?

HealthElectionsPolitics

82¢

None of the above

M0—Jan 1, 2027open

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

HealthTech

41¢

M0—Jan 1, 2150open

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Health

12¢

M0—Dec 31, 2031open

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

HealthTech

46¢

M0—Jan 1, 2034open

When will King Charles III die?

HealthWorldPolitics

49¢

2030 and later

M0—Jan 1, 2035open

Is Nicotine Good for You?

Health

25¢

M0—Jan 31, 2027open

Where did COVID-19 come from

Health

53¢

Transfer at a wet market

M0—Dec 31, 2035open

Will I live to be 150 years old?

HealthTech

11¢

M0—Jun 15, 2192open

More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030

Health

13¢

M0—Jun 2, 2030open

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

HealthTech

61¢

Doesn’t work at all and never will

M0—Apr 2, 2030open

Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?

Health

100¢

Virat Kohli

M0—Jul 1, 2035open

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

HealthTech

45¢

Diet and obesity

M0—Jan 2, 2043open

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

HealthTechBusiness

36¢

M0—Jan 2, 2029open

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

HealthTechCulture

40¢

M0—Jan 1, 2050open

Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?

HealthPoliticsElections

67¢

Donald Trump

M0—Jan 1, 2045open

When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?

Health

93¢

Before 2069

M0—Mar 31, 2069open

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Health

74¢

M0—Dec 28, 2034open

What will be true about Apple's smart ring?

HealthTech

100¢

It won't be available for purchase in 2024

M0—Jan 1, 2030open

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

HealthTech

27¢

M0—Jan 1, 2047open

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

HealthTech

12¢

M0—Oct 16, 2191open

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Health

36¢

M0—Dec 31, 2030open

Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?

Health

21¢

M0—Dec 31, 2027open

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

HealthTech

18¢

M0—Dec 31, 2029open

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Health

37¢

M0—Jan 2, 2027open

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Health

8¢

M0—Jan 1, 2027open

Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?

HealthTech

40¢

M0—Jan 1, 2040open

Will I live to be 200 years old?

HealthTech

13¢

M0—Jan 30, 2202open

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

HealthCulture

64¢

About the same as in 2024

M0—Jan 1, 2027open

Will Ray Kurzweil live to see the singularity?

HealthTech

18¢

M0—Apr 4, 2030open

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

HealthPolitics

82¢

M0—Jan 1, 2030open

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

HealthBusinessTech

68¢

M0—Jan 1, 2030open

Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above?

Health

32¢

M0—Jan 1, 2054open

If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?

HealthTech

37¢

M0—Jan 1, 2055open

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

Health

85¢

M0—May 7, 2028open

Will Joe Biden live to see the Russia-Ukraine war end?

Health

75¢

M0—Jan 1, 2031open