markets

sourceevent / marketprob.vol 24▾rankⓘchartendstatus

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

HealthWorldPolitics

45¢

Benjamin Netanyahu

M12.7K47Mar 13, 2040open

Pandemic in 2026?

Health

9¢

In 2026

$6.9K29Jan 1, 2027open

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

HealthTech

25¢

M7110Jan 1, 2040open

Will Trump make IVF free?

Health

16¢

Before 2029

$96.58Jan 27, 2029open

Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?

Health

18¢

In 2026

$102Jan 31, 2027open

Will there be a year without polio before 2030?

Health

10¢

Before 2030

$10Jan 1, 2030open

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

Health

85¢

At least 2000

$0—Jan 1, 2029open

Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?

Health

34¢

Before 2033

$0—Jan 8, 2033open

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

HealthBusiness

24¢

M0—Dec 31, 2026open

Will Joe Biden be alive in November of 2028?

Health

71¢

M0—Nov 23, 2028open

Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027?

HealthTech

89¢

M0—Jan 1, 2028open

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

HealthTech

11¢

M0—Dec 31, 2026open

Will I live to be 100 years old?

Health

32¢

M0—Jan 1, 2095open

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

HealthTechWorld

3¢

M0—Jan 1, 2030open

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Health

87¢

M0—Jan 2, 2028open

By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally?

HealthTech

25¢

M0—Jan 1, 2056open

If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?

HealthElectionsPolitics

82¢

None of the above

M0—Jan 1, 2027open

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

HealthTech

26¢

M0—Dec 31, 2029open

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

HealthTech

41¢

M0—Jan 1, 2150open

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Health

12¢

M0—Dec 31, 2031open

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

HealthTech

46¢

M0—Jan 1, 2034open

Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?

Health

54¢

M0—Jan 1, 2029open

When will King Charles III die?

HealthWorldPolitics

48¢

2030 and later

M0—Jan 1, 2035open

Is Nicotine Good for You?

Health

25¢

M0—Jan 31, 2027open

Where did COVID-19 come from

Health

53¢

Transfer at a wet market

M0—Dec 31, 2035open

Will I live to be 150 years old?

HealthTech

22¢

M0—Jun 15, 2192open

More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030

HealthTech

13¢

M0—Jun 2, 2030open

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

HealthTech

50¢

Doesn’t work at all and never will

M0—Apr 2, 2030open

Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?

Health

100¢

Virat Kohli

M0—Jul 1, 2035open

Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?

HealthTech

45¢

Diet and obesity

M0—Jan 2, 2043open

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

HealthTechBusiness

36¢

M0—Jan 2, 2029open

Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak?

Health

12¢

M0—Jul 31, 2026open

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

HealthTechCulture

40¢

M0—Jan 1, 2050open

Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer?

HealthPoliticsElections

70¢

Donald Trump

M0—Jan 1, 2045open

When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?

Health

93¢

Before 2069

M0—Mar 31, 2069open

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Health

72¢

M0—Dec 28, 2034open

What will be true about Apple's smart ring?

HealthTech

100¢

It won't be available for purchase in 2024

M0—Jan 1, 2030open

Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?

HealthTech

27¢

M0—Jan 1, 2047open

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

HealthTech

15¢

M0—Oct 16, 2191open

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Health

33¢

M0—Dec 31, 2030open

Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?

Health

25¢

M0—Dec 31, 2027open

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

HealthTech

19¢

M0—Dec 31, 2029open

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Health

24¢

M0—Jan 1, 2027open

Will I be alive by 2100?

Health

58¢

M0—Feb 1, 2100open

Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?

HealthTech

40¢

M0—Jan 1, 2040open

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

HealthTech

43¢

M0—Jan 2, 2030open

Will I live to be 200 years old?

HealthTech

12¢

M0—Jan 30, 2202open

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

HealthCulture

58¢

About the same as in 2024

M0—Jan 1, 2027open

Will Ray Kurzweil live to see the singularity?

HealthTech

18¢

M0—Apr 4, 2030open

Will Vladimir Putin die of natural causes?

HealthWorld

60¢

M0—Dec 31, 2100open