markets

The first 50 of 51 events on pdata.world for this view, across 8 prediction-market platforms. Prices are probabilities; volume is each platform's own reported 24-hour figure, in its own unit.

1. First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu? — Manifold, Benjamin Netanyahu 71%, M150 24h volume.
2. What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? — Kalshi, At least 2000 96%, $3.3k 24h volume.
3. Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? — Manifold, 28%, M30 24h volume.
4. Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year? — Kalshi, In 2026 6%, $228 24h volume.
5. Pandemic in 2026? — Kalshi, In 2026 3%, $167 24h volume.
6. Will there be a year without polio before 2030? — Kalshi, Before 2030 9%, $137 24h volume.
7. Total cases of measles reported in US during 2026 — Manifold, x ≥ 500 100%, M10 24h volume.
8. New pandemic before 2028? — Polymarket, 13%, $20 24h volume.
9. More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030 — Manifold, 13%, M1 24h volume.
10. Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033? — Kalshi, Before 2033 37%, $0 24h volume.
11. Will Trump make IVF free? — Kalshi, Before 2029 9%, $0 24h volume.
12. Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself? — Manifold, 8%, M0 24h volume.
13. Will I live to be 100 years old? — Manifold, 26%, M0 24h volume.
14. If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later? — Manifold, 81%, M0 24h volume.
15. By the end of 2055, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children normally? — Manifold, 25%, M0 24h volume.
16. If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027? — Manifold, None of the above 82%, M0 24h volume.
17. Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? — Manifold, 42%, M0 24h volume.
18. Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030? — Manifold, 12%, M0 24h volume.
19. Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033? — Manifold, 46%, M0 24h volume.
20. When will King Charles III die? — Manifold, 2030 and later 49%, M0 24h volume.
21. Is Nicotine Good for You? — Manifold, 25%, M0 24h volume.
22. Where did COVID-19 come from — Manifold, Transfer at a wet market 53%, M0 24h volume.
23. Will I live to be 150 years old? — Manifold, 12%, M0 24h volume.
24. Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities] — Manifold, Doesn’t work at all and never will 61%, M0 24h volume.
25. Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035? — Manifold, Virat Kohli 100%, M0 24h volume.
26. Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor? — Manifold, Diet and obesity 45%, M0 24h volume.
27. In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients? — Manifold, 36%, M0 24h volume.
28. Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will? — Manifold, 40%, M0 24h volume.
29. Which 2024 US presidential candidate will live longer? — Manifold, Donald Trump 67%, M0 24h volume.
30. When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level? — Manifold, Before 2069 93%, M0 24h volume.
31. More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague? — Manifold, 3%, M0 24h volume.
32. Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035? — Manifold, 74%, M0 24h volume.
33. What will be true about Apple's smart ring? — Manifold, It won't be available for purchase in 2024 100%, M0 24h volume.
34. Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046? — Manifold, 29%, M0 24h volume.
35. Will I live to be at least 200 years old? — Manifold, 13%, M0 24h volume.
36. Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030? — Manifold, 36%, M0 24h volume.
37. Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027? — Manifold, 22%, M0 24h volume.
38. Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030? — Manifold, 18%, M0 24h volume.
39. In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023? — Manifold, 18%, M0 24h volume.
40. Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026? — Manifold, 8%, M0 24h volume.
41. Will I be alive by 2100? — Manifold, 56%, M0 24h volume.
42. Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040? — Manifold, 40%, M0 24h volume.
43. Will I live to be 200 years old? — Manifold, 13%, M0 24h volume.
44. At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states? — Manifold, About the same as in 2024 65%, M0 24h volume.
45. Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030? — Manifold, 82%, M0 24h volume.
46. [M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030? — Manifold, 60%, M0 24h volume.
47. Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above? — Manifold, 32%, M0 24h volume.
48. If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years? — Manifold, 37%, M0 24h volume.
49. Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024? — Manifold, 98%, M0 24h volume.
50. When will the human population drop below 1 billion — Manifold, After 2100 76%, M0 24h volume.