manifold
play-money prediction market · tracked on pdata, not affiliated
11,015markets·1,697events·M246.5k24h
Manifold is a play-money prediction market. pdata tracks 11,015 of its live markets — priced in real time and compared against 7 other platforms. Here's what's moving across Tech, Politics and World right now.
breakdown
Manifold · by category · 1,960 events⚑ counts only · no facet $-volumeTech75538.5%Politics47124.0%World24212.3%Culture1437.3%Elections1005.1%Business763.9%Economy452.3%Health442.2%Finance251.3%Crypto221.1%Mentions221.1%Sports90.5%Climate60.3%
this venue's markets by category — each slice links to the matching category hub.
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
WAWT
CV
WT
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
tech·Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
31¢
▼ 1.0pp
M21.4k
vol 24h
Will the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?
business·Will the worst day in cyber security in 2026 be after 10/21/2026?
59¢
▲ 1.7pp
M17.8k
vol 24h
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
politics·Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?
32¢
▼ 1.6pp
M14.4k
vol 24h
California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?
politics·California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?
16¢
▼ 2.9pp
M11.1k
vol 24h
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
politics·California 9
98¢
· 0.0pp
M11k
vol 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
tech·Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
26¢
▼ 2.3pp
M9.2k
vol 24h
Will the next White House Press Secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?
Will the next White House Press Secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?
39¢▼ 14.2pp
Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?
Does Claude Opus 5.5 make egregious errors?
74¢▲ 11.9pp
Bitcoin $87,500 in October 2026?
Bitcoin $87,500 in October 2026?
14¢▼ 8.5pp
Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
Republican Party
69¢▲ 5.8pp
