manifold

play-money prediction market · tracked on pdata, not affiliated

10,083markets·1,645events·$1.5M24h· live· 14 categories

Manifold is a play-money prediction market. pdata tracks 10,083 of its live markets — priced in real time and compared against 7 other platforms. Here's what's moving across Tech, Politics and World right now.

breakdown

Manifold · by category · 2,007 events⚑ counts only · no facet $-volume

37%21%12%8%

Tech74036.9%Politics41420.6%World24812.4%Culture1618.0%Business1105.5%Elections1065.3%Economy542.7%Health532.6%Mentions381.9%Finance371.8%Crypto211.0%Sports130.6%Climate100.5%Commodities20.1%

this venue's markets by category — each slice links to the matching category hub.

top events

by 24h volumeall markets →

marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

tech·can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

politics·Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

tech·Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

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tech

Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?

60¢▲ 20.4pp

politics

Who will win Peru's 2026 presidential election?

94¢▲ 11.8pp

tech

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

33¢▲ 3.1pp

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